Ahead of a very winnable game against WBA and on the back of a terrible loss by a supposed Mata-reinvigorated Man U and draw by Tottenham, it’s hard not to get excited especially after the mid week drubbing of Everton. The burning question on most Liverpool supporter’s mind will be, can Liverpool finally make it back into the Champions League?
Current observations are great. But as a Liverpool supporter, it’s not hard to look upon the forgettable past few years of false hope and expectations. Even earlier in the season when things were looking great, there would be unexpected, against the trend losing games (Southampton and Hull).
Whilst I attempt to look at the remaining games for the top 4 hopefuls, I’m going to keep in mind that this season has seen plenty of strange upsets not only for Liverpool but for all other teams. With that in mind, I’ve come up with a simple strategy/formula to look at the remaining games that hopefully can incorporate some of these random events. I’m looking at this from a totally unbiased perspective and purely calculating against the “should” win games for each team.
If you’ve read my previous blog about the closeness of this season, you will already know that I believe the relegation fight contains a lot of teams. Looking at the current table, the biggest point difference between adjacent teams is between Southampton and Aston Villa (8 pts), everywhere else, it’s within a game or two. So that’s where I draw the line. So below are my calculation rules:
- All games against those that fall under the biggest point gap are considered wins regardless of whether it’s Home or Away.
- Games against the top 3 or rival top 4s are not counted.
- Games against Southampton and Newcastle at Home are considered wins. Away games are not counted.
With these calculation rules, it should hopefully balance things out with shock loses/draws against lower teams and good wins against higher teams. With that in mind, here’s how the points should pan out by the end of the season for the 4 teams that are fighting for 4th.
So, there you have it, if my prediction rules are right, the teams should finish around those projected points. In that case, Liverpool will finish 4th, Tottenham 5th, Everton 6th and Man U 7th. But of course, we all know EPL is unpredictable (more so than ever this season), so like my previous blog, I maintain, this is going to a fantastic finish to the season regardless of the positions. Just for fun, I used the same rules for the top 3 teams as well, but adding in Home wins against LIV, TOT, EVE, MANU and here’s the result:
My ladder end of season:
- Man C
- Man U
What are your thoughts? Do you agree with my ladder?